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2016 Gimcrack Stakes tips - Back improving Mubtasim to uphold perfect record in York's Saturday feature

The Group Two Gimcrack Stakes is one of the Saturday highlights at York.

Brian Healy assesses Saturday's Group Two Gimcrack Stakes, one of the feature races on the final day of the York Ebor Festival.


The Group Two Gimcrack Stakes is one of the highlights of the closing day card at the 2016 York Ebor Festival, and the classy juvenile sprint contest has attracted a typically strong field of runners for the six-furlong contest on the Knavesmire.

Due to get underway at 3.25pm as the fourth race on the final-day racecard, the high class sprint has attracted an eleven-runner field for the race won twelve months ago by Ajaya.

Godolphin’s Blue Point (2/1, William Hill) heads up the betting for the six-furlong contest, and Charlie Appleby’s charge should run a big race having found only the very smart Mehmas too strong in the Group Two Richmond Stakes last time, where the Shamardal colt failed only by one length to hold off the winner.

He was forced to cut out his own running, which wouldn’t have helped the Godolphin runner, and it was a good effort considering. He had earlier made a huge impression when trouncing Shamsaya and others by a wide margin at Doncaster, and likely to have further improvement to come, he can go well and prove himself a high-class colt.

However, he looks little value at current odds and he may be worth taking on.


Blue Point (2nd from left) bids to regain winning ways in the Gimcrack.

Ardad (14/1, William Hill) had looked very smart in winning a Listed race at Ascot in June, having also won on debut at Yarmouth on debut. However, John Gosden’s charge was bitterly disappointing behind Mehmas at Newmarket in the July Stakes, failing to beat a rival home.

The Kodiac colt couldn’t have been right in that contest, as he was beaten a long way out; he is likely better than that, but he needs to bounce back from that disappointing run, and possible he can do better.

Intelligence Cross (9/1, Bet365) has twice been beaten behind Mehmas in his last two starts, and Aidan O’Brien’s charge looks held behind Blue Point on their run last time out at Goodwood where the Godolphin runner finished ahead of the Ballydoyle runner.

There looked to be no excuses for the War Front colt on that occasion, and there seems no reason why he should reverse that form with Blue Point; although given his connections he can’t be totally dismissed that he won’t be competitive. Still, he has something to find with the Godolphin representative.

There could be better to come from Mokarris (9/2, Ladbrokes) who bombed out on soft ground in the Coventry at Royal Ascot, beating only two horses home behind Caravaggio; but he registered wins either side of that poor outing with successes at Haydock on debut, and at Newbury in a Listed contest last time.

On the latter occasion, the More Than Ready colt came readily clear of the runner-up and was eased close home to register a near-three lengths winner over Nobly Born. There could be better to come from him and he can run a big race.


Mokarris can post a big run in Saturday's big sprint contest.

Dream Of Dreams (12/1, Paddy Power) was a winner at Haydock in May, beating Waqaas by a half-length, and the Dream Ahead colt lost little in defeat behind Medicine Jack at the Curragh last time in the Railway Stakes where he went down by two lengths.

Kevin Ryan’s charge didn’t help his cause by being slowly away, and he perhaps used up too much energy early to get into a racing position given the way he weakened late in that race. He is another who can’t be easily dismissed in this contest with the prospect of further improvement, and the arrival of the rain will help his chances.

Global Applause (20/1, William Hill) has done little wrong thus far, winning twice from five starts which include a Sandown Listed win; and the Mayson colt posted a good third last time out in the Molecombe Stakes behind Yalta at Goodwood, beaten almost four lengths.

He could still have further improvement, but he’s more exposed than others in the field and may prove vulnerable in this field.


Global Applause has to find some improvement in this contest.

Grey Britain (100/1, Paddy Power) twice finished runner-up at Lingfield and Yarmouth prior to getting off the mark back at the first-named venue earlier in the month with a defeat of Miss Icon.

That form falls some way short of what is required to win a race of this nature; and while he is entitled to improve, this looks a tall order for the Arcano colt.Unabated (40/1, Coral) too could be taking on more than he can handle, having been beaten last time behind Broken Stones at Newmarket.

Marco Botti’s charge had made a winning debut at Newmarket in June with a head-defeat of Wahash; and the form of his latest run was done no harm by the subsequent win of the fourth home, albeit in minor company.

Nevertheless, this is a much tougher assignment facing the Bated Breath colt now, and he could struggle in this company to get competitive.

MUBTASIM (4/1, Paddy Power) however gets a narrow vote to uphold his unbeaten record, and William Haggas’ charge looked a very smart prospect when scoring easily on debut at Yarmouth, scoring by two lengths from Jumira Bridge.

That good impression was enhanced when the Arcano colt bolted in at Haydock next time, thumping Town Charter and others by four lengths and more, where he surged clear with relative ease to deliver a resounding beating to rivals.

There is surely better to come from him, and the stable has won this three times in the last ten years so know what it takes to be successful in this contest. The Arcano colt also holds an entry in the Mill Reef Stakes later in the season, and with the prospect of better to come, he can uphold his unbeaten record.


William Haggas has won the Gimcrack three times in the last ten years, and can make it four with Mubtasim.

Medici Banchiere (66/1, Betfair) looked a potentially smart prospect when scoring by ten lengths in a minor contest at Carlisle in May, and the Medicean colt took the step up in class well enough when finishing fifth behind Mehmas at Newmarket on his next start.

Beaten only four lengths despite still looking green, there is the prospect for better from Karl Burke’s charge although he’ll need to raise his game to get involved. He’s not dismissed though in this contest as a possible big-priced place prospect.

The Last Lion (20/1, William Hill) completes the line-up, and the Sandown Listed winner also won on debut at Doncaster in the Brocklesby when running out an impressive winner of that early-season contest.

The Choisir colt made the frame in his subsequent outings until resuming winning ways at Sandown, and there was another creditable effort to come behind stablemate Yalta at Goodwood last month, where he finished runner-up in the Molecomb Stakes.

Mark Johnston’s charge has only ever raced over five furlongs to date, but he gave the impression last time he may be suited by further. This is tougher, but he can give a good account despite perhaps lacking the scope for improvement of a couple of these.

VERDICT


Blue Point rates the one to beat on the back of his excellent wide-margin success at Doncaster two runs ago, and his subsequent runner-up effort at Goodwood where he wasn’t seen to best effect.

The Godolphin runner is sure to go well, but his price is skinny and he may be worth taking on with the progressive MUBTASIM (4/1, Paddy Power) who is unbeaten in two starts in minor company and takes a considerable step up in class following an easy success at Haydock last time.

William Haggas has won this race three times in the last ten years, including twelve months ago with Ajaya, and the Arcano colt is clearly well-regarded given he also holds an entry in the Mill Reef Stakes later in the season.

He’s open to plenty of improvement, and he looked a potentially high-class performer last time when trouncing Town Charter easily by four lengths, winning easily; he could have significant progress to come, and can go close in this contest.

2016 GIMCRACK STAKES SELECTION - MUBTASIM (4/1, Paddy Power)


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2016 Gimcrack Stakes tips - Back improving Mubtasim to uphold perfect record in York's Saturday feature

Brian Healy assesses Saturday's Group Two Gimcrack Stakes, one of the feature races on the final day of the York Ebor Festival.

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